The president’s decision to leave the G7 summit in Canada came after Israel and Iran entered a fifth day of back-and-forth attacks. Israel has been pressing the United States to intervene militarily. Patrick Kingsley Farnaz Fassihi Natan Odenheimer David E. Sanger and Jonathan Swan President Trump on Monday was set to abruptly leave a Group of 7 summit with world leaders in Canada a day ahead of schedule to deal with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, amid Israeli pressure for the United States to intervene militarily to crush Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said that President Trump left the two-day summit “because of what is going on in the Middle East,” but she did not elaborate. The fiercest confrontation in the history of the Israeli-Iranian conflict has entered its fifth day, with Israel still short of its goal of knocking out Iran’s nuclear development program. Israeli officials have been pressing the United States to engage directly in the war by dropping so-called bunker-busting bombs, 30,000-pound weapons powerful enough to take out Iran’s deeply buried equipment at the major Fordo nuclear site. Only one weapon could destroy the facility, experts say: the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which requires a B-2 bomber for delivery. Israel owns neither the weapon nor the bomber. Mr. Trump has long made clear his opposition to American involvement in other countries’ wars. But he has also made clear his opposition to a nuclear-armed Iran. “Simply stated,” he said Monday on his social media platform, “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.” Mr. Trump had already decided, according a White House official, not to sign a statement being prepared by the G7 industrialized nations that called for de-escalation between Iran and Israel, the latest evidence of a rift between Mr. Trump and fellow leaders. Acting with what appeared to be increasing confidence, Israel claimed “full aerial superiority” on Monday and told residents of parts of Tehran to evacuate, hinting in advance that it was about to attack the state television complex. That attack came while anchors were live on the air. Israel also said it had struck the headquarters of the elite Quds Force in the Iranian capital. And Mr. Netanyahu declined to rule out targeting Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran sent barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which struck several cities early on Monday, killing at least eight people, according to Israeli officials. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, signaled an openness to resuming talks with U.S. representatives about curtailing its nuclear development program. And President Trump has been encouraging Vice President JD Vance and his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to offer to meet the Iranians this week, according to a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential,” Mr. Araghchi said in a statement. With civilian casualties climbing on both sides, the war now seems likely to last weeks, not days. Israeli strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran, according to the Iranian health ministry, and injured more than 1,400 people. In Israel, the government said at least 24 people had died, with roughly 600 injured. Here’s what else to know: Damage assessment: How successful Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites have been was still unclear on Monday. The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said there had been no additional damage since Friday to an enrichment plant site at Natanz, but that a loss of power to the site “may have damaged the centrifuges there.” Read more › On-air attack: The Israeli attack on the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster shook the building and set it on fire. A news anchor was speaking live on the air at the time, and the broadcast carried the sound of breaking glass and screams. Read more › Weakened Iran: Iran is often portrayed as a dangerous rogue state whose growing nuclear program and shadowy military capabilities threaten Israel, the United States and other countries. But attacks on Iran since war erupted between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 have weakened the Iranian leadership and its proxy militias, and the current war shows just how compromised Iranian forces really are. Read more › Life on hold: Some Iranians are steeling themselves for a long conflict and weighing how to find relative safety. Long lines of cars have packed highways heading out of the city, though many residents say they have no place to go. Read more › Reporting from the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada “You probably see what I see, and I have to be back as soon as I can,” Trump told fellow G7 leaders at their summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, as they gathered to take the traditional group photo. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, the summit’s host, said he understood why Trump had to leave. Reporting on the Group of 7 summit from Calgary, Alberta President Trump is leaving the Group of 7 summit a day early, according to the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt. “Much was accomplished, but because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State,” Leavitt said on social media. A few hours ago, Trump signaled that he was feeling some pressure to be more engaged in the Middle East crisis. “They want to make a deal, and as soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something,” he said. “But I have to leave here.” When asked if he would consider traveling to the Middle East if he thought it would help broker a deal, Trump said he believed that talks were going well. “We’re talking,” he said. “We have a thing called the telephone, so we’re talking. It’s always better to talk in person.” Israel has launched a series of strikes against Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear program and other military infrastructure. Iran has launched its own strikes in retaliation. Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Monday that the power to the Natanz uranium enrichment center had been cut in Israeli strikes on Friday, a disruption that he said probably sent its centrifuges spinning out of control. According to the Fars news agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, a worker at the state broadcaster was killed in the Israeli attack earlier on the company’s headquarters on Monday. Fars identified the victim as Masoumeh Azimi, an employee of the broadcaster’s archives department. President Trump, in a post on Truth Social during the G7 summit meeting in Canada, reiterated his suggestion that Iran had brought Israeli attacks on itself by not heeding his urging to sign a deal to end its nuclear program. “What a shame, and waste of human life,” Trump wrote. “Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” During remarks to reporters about an hour earlier, Trump said that he believed that “Iran basically is at the negotiating table” and wanted to make a deal. Asked if he wanted to see regime change in Iran, Trump replied, “I want to see no nuclear weapon in Iran, and we’re well on our way to making sure that happens.” Less than 20 minutes after announcing an incoming Iranian missile strike, the Israeli military indicated that the attack was over. “It is now permitted to leave protected spaces in all areas across the country,” it said in a statement that offered no details about possible hits or interceptions. As Tuesday began in the Middle East, the conflict between Israel and Iran continued into its fifth day. Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, late on Monday night said that a new wave of missile and drone strikes against Israel had begun. After midnight, the Israeli military said that sirens had sounded across several areas of Israel after missiles launched from Iran were detected and that it was working to intercept them and to “strike where necessary to eliminate the threat.” Early on Tuesday morning in Israel, just after midnight, the Israeli police said that officers in Haifa were investigating after several people on the balcony of a hotel in the city were seen with cameras aimed in the direction of the city’s port. The equipment was confiscated and the photographers were summoned for questioning, the police said. The police statement was notable because the Israeli military has been warning residents not to publish the locations of sites where Iranian missiles have struck in recent days, citing security concerns and warning that Iran uses the publicly posted information to refine its targeting. Early on Monday, Iranian missiles hit Israel’s largest oil refinery, in Haifa Bay in northern Israel, according to footage verified by The New York Times. From left, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain on Monday at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times President Trump will depart early from the Group of 7 meeting in Canada on Monday night to deal with the rapidly escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, the White House said, just hours after refusing to sign onto a statement by allies at the summit that called for restraint, de-escalation and diplomacy. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, offered little explanation for Mr. Trump’s abrupt departure, writing on X that “because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State.” Earlier on Monday, Mr. Trump had hinted to reporters that he was feeling pressure to be more engaged in the Middle East crisis, saying: “As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something. But I have to leave here.” But what he intended to do remained unclear even as the president prepared to leave halfway through the two-day meeting. Mr. Trump had been scheduled to hold a session with allies about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday and to meet face-to-face with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. Asked on Monday morning what it would take for the United States to get involved militarily on behalf of Israel in its attacks on Iran, Mr. Trump told reporters, “I don’t want to talk about that.” Ms. Leavitt, asked about the same possibility on Monday evening, said that “American forces are maintaining their defensive posture, and that has not changed.” Israel has been encouraging Mr. Trump to join its military assault, which it maintains is aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. But as of Monday night, Mr. Trump had announced no plans for U.S. military forces to join the fight, beyond helping Israel to defend itself. Earlier in the day, a White House official said that Mr. Trump had decided not to sign onto a statement calling for de-escalation between Iran and Israel that is being prepared by the Group of 7 industrialized nations. The official, who asked for anonymity to discuss the joint statement, did not say why the president was opposed to signing. The draft statement has not been released, but a copy was obtained by The New York Times; it urges both Israel and Iran to halt attacks on one another that have killed dozens of people in both countries over the past several days. On Monday evening, Mr. Trump warned in a Truth Social post that the entire population of Tehran, the capital of Iran, should evacuate. “What a shame, and waste of human life,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” It was not clear whether the warning was motivated by information that Mr. Trump had about a specific planned Israeli attack. The draft statement expressed deep concern regarding the conflict, which began on Friday when Israel launched strikes across Iran, including on its nuclear research facilities. The Israeli strikes prompted waves of retaliatory ballistic missiles and drones from Iran, some of which struck targets across Israel. Iran has repeatedly said it does not intend to build a nuclear weapon but insists on being allowed to develop nuclear power for the country’s needs. The draft G7 statement is being prepared for the leaders of the group’s member nations — besides the United States and Canada, they are France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Japan — along with the leaders of the European Union. It acknowledges the need to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and explicitly supports Israel’s right to defend itself. But it also calls on both sides to de-escalate in order to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions at the negotiating table, saying that diplomacy is the best way to resolve the dispute. Speaking to reporters at the summit, in the mountain town of Kananakis in western Canada, Stefan Kornelius, a spokesman for the German government, said the purpose of a joint statement was to have “impact” on the situation in the Middle East. He said it was unclear whether the United States might relent and end up signing on. “We’ll see in the end,” Mr. Kornelius said. “It’ll be up to the American side to decide whether we’re going to have a G7 statement on the Middle East or not.” The White House official said that despite declining to sign on to the joint statement with the allies, Mr. Trump remained focused on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. On Sunday, Mr. Trump told ABC News that he was “open” to the idea of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia mediating the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran and the United States have been trying for weeks to reach an agreement in which Iran would voluntarily give up its nuclear research. Those talks were supposed to continue over the weekend but were canceled because of the strikes in both countries. Earlier on Monday, Mr. Trump admonished Iran for not agreeing to a deal to limit its nuclear ambitions. He said he had given them 60 days to reach a deal that might have averted the Israeli attack. “They’d like to talk,” Mr. Trump said of the leadership in Iran. “But they should have done that before. I had 60 days, and they had 60 days, and on the 61st day, I said, we don’t have a deal. They have to make a deal, and it’s painful for both parties, but I’d say Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk, and they should talk immediately, before it’s too late.” Even as the G7 summit unfolded behind closed doors in Canada, the conflict in the Middle East continued unabated. Israel widened its targets on Monday, striking and setting fire to the headquarters of state television while anchors were broadcasting live. Iran has been retaliating, sending missiles and drones headed toward Israel on Monday. But Mr. Trump said that he believed the fighting would end soon. “I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table,” he told reporters at the summit. “They want to make a deal." Missiles in the sky above the West Bank on Monday. Since the confrontation between Israel and Iran began, debris from them has fallen in Palestinian communities.Credit...Mohamad Torokman/Reuters When Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel on Friday evening, among those who suffered were Alaa Jaradat, a Palestinian construction worker in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and his family. Israeli interceptors colliding with incoming Iranian missiles rained debris on Mr. Jaradat’s home, damaging the building and leaving his children with minor injuries, he said. While Israelis in nearby settlements hunkered down in purpose-built safe rooms, the Jaradat family and their Palestinian neighbors had nowhere to hide. “We’ve had no help from the government, not even a warning,” said Mr. Jaradat, 43. Since the confrontation between Israel and Iran began last Friday, roughly 80 pieces of shrapnel have hit Palestinian communities in the West Bank, according to Nael Al-Azza, a spokesman for the Palestinian emergency services, or civil defense. Israeli settlements in the West Bank, like communities within Israel, typically have bomb shelters and air raid sirens. But Palestinian neighborhoods in the West Bank, sometimes just a few dozen yards from Israeli settlements, have few shelters, warnings or official instructions on what to do in case of attack. According to Mr. Al-Azza, seven people have been injured as a result. This dynamic has heightened frustration with both the Israeli military occupation and the Palestinian Authority, the semiautonomous body that administers roughly 40 percent of the West Bank. Though the authority’s emergency services have warned Palestinians to stay away from unexploded ordnance, the authority has otherwise offered little guidance on how to prepare for the attacks. “I keep thinking about how I will repair the house and how we can regain any sense of safety — without any support or assistance from the government,” said Mr. Jaradat, who has moved his family to a relative’s home for now. Amid the airstrikes, Israeli military raids and attacks by settlers have continued across the West Bank, compounding the sense of uncertainty. Israeli checkpoints and roadblocks also restrict Palestinian movement, making it harder for ambulances to reach the injured, according to Ahmed Jibreel, the head of the Palestinian Red Crescent. “Continuous passage is nearly impossible,” Mr. Jibreel said, adding that injured or ill people are often carried on foot between ambulances on either side of a checkpoint. Within Palestinian cities, scenes of panic have played out at gas stations for three days in a row, as residents attempt to stock up on fuel in case the war leads to a shortage. In turn, that has led to a new joke among Palestinians: “What’s the point of stockpiling fuel if you can’t move?” Reporting on the Group of 7 summit from Calgary, Alberta President Trump does not plan to sign a joint statement calling for de-escalation between Iran and Israel that is being drafted by the Group of 7 nations meeting in Canada, according to a White House official, who did not specify why Trump was opposed to the statement. But the decision to not sign the joint statement comes just a day after Trump told ABC News that he was “open” to the idea of the Russian leader, Vladimir V. Putin, mediating the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority has extended the closure of Iranian airspace to domestic and international flights, this time until 2 a.m. local time on Tuesday, according to Iran’s state news media, the Islamic Republic News Agency. Israel instituted a similar closure to its airspace on Friday. Reza Nawaz, a spokesman for an Iranian association of gas station owners, on Monday told Iran’s state news media, the Islamic Republic News Agency, that there were no interruptions to fuel supplies in the capital, Tehran, where long lines have been forming at gas stations as residents try to flee the city amid Israeli strikes. He said the lines might reflect people’s concerns of possible shortages or because of congestion on the roads. On Sunday, Nawaz had called on Iranians to avoid unnecessary travel, manage fuel consumption and avoid frequent visits to gas stations. After sirens sounded in several communities in northern Israel, the Israeli military said that “several suspicious aerial targets” had crossed into Israeli territory and been intercepted by the Air Force. Israel’s National Cyber Directorate warned of fake text messages sent to Israelis by a sender posing as the military unit that issues civilian safety guidelines. The messages falsely instruct recipients to avoid entering public bomb shelters, claiming there is a risk of terrorist attacks inside them, the directorate said. Asked during a news conference on Monday if Israel was seeking regime change in Iran as part of its ongoing offensive, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not respond directly. But he said there was always a possibility that the Iranian government would collapse as a result of the Israeli assault. “It’s impossible to predict, but it could be the result of our mighty action,” Netanyahu said. He later added: “We are changing the face of the Middle East, and this could lead to far-reaching changes within Iran itself.” Speaker Mike Johnson, who had previously announced plans to travel to Israel and to deliver an address to its Parliament, has postponed his trip amid the continuing exchange of aerial strikes between Israel and Iran. Johnson added in a statement that he hoped to reschedule his address soon. Senator Tim Kaine introduced a resolution that would require explicit congressional authorization or a formal declaration of war before U.S. forces could engage in hostilities against Iran.Credit...Eric Lee/The New York Times Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, is leading a push to curb President Trump’s authority to use U.S. forces to engage in hostilities against Iran, as the war between Israel and Iran raises fears of American entanglement in a broader conflict. A resolution Mr. Kaine introduced Monday would require explicit congressional authorization or a formal declaration of war before U.S. forces could take direct action against Iran. It faces long odds on Capitol Hill given Republicans’ reluctance to challenge Mr. Trump’s power, but it could prompt a vibrant debate as lawmakers in both parties warn against involving the United States in the escalating conflict. The measure is a direct invocation of the War Powers Resolution, a 1973 federal law intended to be a check on the president’s power to enter an armed conflict without the consent of Congress. While it would still allow Mr. Trump to authorize military action in self-defense in the event of an imminent attack, it would compel him to seek approval before carrying out any offensive operations against Iran. “It is not in our national security interest to get into a war with Iran unless that war is absolutely necessary to defend the United States,” Mr. Kaine said in a statement announcing the resolution. “I am deeply concerned that the recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could quickly pull the United States into another endless conflict.” Since Mr. Trump returned to office in January, Mr. Kaine has led a number of efforts to reassert congressional authority and reclaim power from the executive branch, whether by challenging presidential power over tariffs or scrutinizing U.S. military support for countries with troubling human rights records. His latest effort reflects growing concern among some on Capitol Hill about the risk of being dragged into a regional war without public debate or legislative approval, though some lawmakers have expressed a willingness to lend additional military support to Israel if tensions with Iran continue to escalate. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and an outspoken hawk on Iran, said that if a diplomatic solution was not possible that he would urge President Trump to go “all in” against Iran and its nuclear program. “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs” “Mr. Graham said during an interview on CBS Face The Nation on Sunday. “If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.” A number of senators, both Democrats and Republicans, have issued stark warnings to Iran not to strike at American interests, including troops or military installations. “The message to the ayatollah is: ‘The United States has troops, facilities, and civilians in the region. Do not attack them. That is our red line. If you go there, all bets are off,” Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, the Republican majority whip, said during a Fox News interview on Sunday. When asked how the U.S. might respond if Iran crossed that red line, Mr. Barrasso said only that “the president has lots of options and incredible capacity.” He did not address whether Congress should be consulted before any military escalation beyond self-defense. Mr. Kaine’s resolution comes on the heels of Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, a move that Israeli officials described as a necessary act of pre-emption. A number of U.S. lawmakers, including many Democrats, have supported Israel’s right to act, citing a recent U.N. report that found Iran had violated previously agreed-upon limits on uranium enrichment. But some lawmakers in both parties have urged de-escalation, including a contingent of far-right Republicans aligned with Mr. Trump’s “America First” philosophy who argue the United States should not entangle itself in a foreign conflict. Still, it remains unclear whether Mr. Kaine’s resolution will gain Republican support. G.O.P. lawmakers have been reluctant to challenge or limit Mr. Trump’s powers. Whether this flashpoint becomes the issue that breaks that pattern may depend on how close the U.S. comes to the brink of war. Asked in an interview with ABC News on Monday whether a possible attack targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would escalate hostilities, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel said, “It’s not going to escalate the conflict, it’s going to end the conflict.” The question came in response to reports that President Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. “We’ve had half a century of conflict spread by this regime,” Netanyahu said, adding, “The forever war is what Iran wants.” During a live broadcast on Iranian state television, a news anchor left the set when an Israeli strike hit the state television’s headquarters in Tehran, causing debris to fall.CreditCredit...Iranian State TV, via IRIB The Israeli military attacked the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster in Tehran on Monday evening, the Israeli defense minister and Iranian media said. Videos and images from the scene showed the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting building on fire. A news anchor — a woman identified by Iranian state media as Sahar Emami — was speaking live on the air when an explosion shook the building, followed by the sound of breaking glass and screams, all carried live on television. The screen filled with smoke and debris as the anchor hurried off. Hassan Abedini, the deputy director of Iran’s state broadcaster, said some employees were injured in the Israeli strike, without specifying a number. He said firefighters were trying to contain the fires at the building, which were sending a large column of black smoke into the air. The attack appeared to have struck only one of the buildings belonging to the state broadcaster, which has a number of other buildings in the area in central Tehran. Footage from Iran’s state broadcaster shows smoke rising from the headquarters building of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.CreditCredit...Iranian State TV, via Associated Press Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, confirmed the attack, saying that it took place as programs were being broadcast live. It said that programming was “briefly halted” but “returned to normal” after a few minutes. The Iranian state broadcaster has long been associated with the government’s dominance of public life and the country’s media. Iran is widely considered to be one of the most repressive states in terms of press freedom; journalists who cross government red lines can face severe consequences. Before the strike, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, had said in a statement that “the mouthpiece of Iranian propaganda and incitement is about to disappear.” The Israeli military later said in a statement that its air force had struck the building to target a “communication center” that was being used by the Iranian military “under the guise of civilian activity.” The claim could not be independently verified. Elham Abedini, another Iranian state television anchor, captured the wreckage in an Instagram livestream. Her video showed chaos as people ran and shouted amid debris. “They are in the glass building, they are all there,” she can be heard telling a guard in uniform, referring to the channel’s employees. The attack was preceded by an Israeli evacuation order for the densely-populated Tehran district where the state broadcaster lies. In that statement, the Israeli military said it planned to target “military infrastructure” in the area “in the coming hours.” In the wars in Gaza against Hamas, and in Lebanon against Hezbollah, Israel frequently used the tactic of telling civilians to either flee or face an impending Israeli attack, even on a specific building. The warnings often prompted panic and fear among people in the targeted zone. The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Nimitz is leaving Southeast Asia for the Middle East as part of a planned deployment, a Defense Department official said. The Nimitz sailed west through the Singapore Strait on Monday. It had been operating in the South China Sea last week, the official said. Many videos circulating online, including live video feeds, show the headquarters of the Iranian state broadcaster, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, burning with a thick column of black smoke rising from the building. The Israeli strike on the building appears to have only hit the main headquarters of the state broadcaster, which has a number of other buildings in the area in central Tehran. Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, confirmed the attack on the headquarters of the state broadcaster in Tehran, saying that the strike hit as programs were being broadcast live. It said that programming was “briefly halted” but “returned to normal” after a few minutes. A large plume of black smoke billowed in the sky and flames were visible at the site, photographs and videos showed. The Israeli military attacked the Iranian state broadcaster in the capital of Tehran on Monday afternoon, Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, confirmed in a statement. “We will strike the Iranian dictator everywhere,” he said, labeling the channel as a source of “propaganda and incitement.” The Israeli military later said in a statement that the Israeli air force had struck the building to target a “communication center” that was being used by the Iranian military “under the guise of civilian activity.” The claim could not be independently verified. An oil storage was hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times The intense rounds of air attacks between Israel and Iran have analysts and traders poring over scenarios for the direction of energy markets. A wide range of outcomes are possible, with prices in the most extreme cases soaring above $120 a barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, but also drifting down to $50 a barrel next year. The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7 percent higher on Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3 percent. Such relatively modest levels may seem surprising with fighting raging in a region that produces around 25 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy, a consulting firm. The conflict is also flaring up at a crucial time for oil markets with the start of the summer driving season, when demand rises. Despite increasing risks, traders appear to be skeptical about the possibility of disruption. They are assuming that if international mediation manages to halt the fighting, prices could fall sharply. “As long as supply has not been disrupted, I don’t think we are going to see huge jumps in oil prices, because the geopolitical risk premium is already factored in,” said Bachar El-Halabi, senior energy markets analyst at Argus Media, a commodities research firm. A nightmare scenario that could double oil prices. On the other hand, some analysts think the market is being complacent. ”We see the risk of a serious supply outage increasing significantly in an extended war scenario,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at the investment bank RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. The most worrisome scenario would be if Iran’s leaders close down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway that leads from the Persian Gulf and, eventually, to the Indian Ocean. Around one third of the volume of crude oil exported by sea as well as 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, another vital commodity, flow through this cliff-lined channel bordered on the north by Iran, according to Rystad. Deutsche Bank analysts think that if Iran were to block the strait for two months, prices could soar to $124 a barrel. But an effort to halt shipping is likely to bring a response from the United States, which has ships from the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain on the Persian Gulf, and other countries. And closing the strait would harm Iran, which exports most of its oil from terminals on Kharg Island in the gulf. Prolonged fighting could push oil to $90 a barrel. Deutsche Bank figures that based on current prices, the market is now assuming the loss of some of Iran’s exports, which recently have been around 1.5 million barrels a day. Most of this oil goes to China, but the small refineries there, which are Iran’s main customers, would need to find other sources of oil if these flows stopped. Analysts may be focusing too much on the potential for closure of the strait, said Ms. Croft, who added that it would be “exceedingly difficult” to pull off for an extended period. Instead, the Iranian navy could scare tanker owners by harassing cargo ships, which could disrupt shipping. Tehran could also encourage militia proxies in neighboring Iraq to threaten Baghdad’s oil infrastructure, which exports more than three million barrels a day. The cost of hiring tankers to carry oil from the region has already jumped, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks shipping. But Kpler analysts said Monday that, so far, the flow of oil from the region was “as normal.” If the fighting is prolonged, analysts like Ms. Croft said that Israel might hit Iran’s energy export installations to curb Tehran’s ability to finance its nuclear program. In that case, analysts said, OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would increase output, but perhaps not by enough to fully offset the loss of Iranian crude. Analysts at Goldman Sachs modeled one scenario in which Brent crude jumps to $90 a barrel after the loss of Iranian production but falls back toward $60 a barrel in 2026 as supply recovers. Iranians waiting in traffic as they sought to leave Tehran on Sunday.Credit...Atta Kenare/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images As Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian cities, and Iranian forces fired back, Meisam, 41, an Iranian poet and writer, decided it was time to leave Tehran. On Sunday night, he joined the crowds of people fleeing the Iranian capital and headed for his hometown in East Azerbaijan Province. Meisam, who asked to be identified only by his first name because of the sensitivity of the situation, said he drove through areas where smoke from explosions hung in the air. So many people were driving out of Tehran, he said, that even at 2 a.m. he had to wait in a long line at the gas station to fill up his tank. “Everything’s uncertain,” he said. Chaos and fear have gripped Iran in the days since Israel launched its surprise attack on Friday and Iran began launching strikes on Israeli cities in response. Israel’s attacks have killed more than 200 people in Iran, according to the country’s health ministry, and injured more than 1,400. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed in retaliatory barrages by Iran, with roughly 600 injured. The sense of foreboding escalated on Monday after the Israeli military issued an evacuation order on social media for a large part of northeastern Tehran, saying it planned to target “military infrastructure” in the area within hours. With internet connectivity disrupted, many people without access to social media may have missed the warning. Gas stations are closing because there is no fuel, those that are open have imposed a limit of 10 liters per car and internet and phone service is severely disrupted, according to six residents of the area. In text and voice messages, several residents of Tehran said that they and their neighbors were scrambling to leave, grabbing essentials and getting on the roads. But for some, the destination was unclear. “Where should I go? Where can I go? Where can half a million people go in a moment’s notice?” said Danial Amin, a resident of Tehran’s Zafar neighborhood. “The highways are completely blocked. We are trapped.” Shadi, 42, who lives in Dibaji, a neighborhood in the evacuation area, had already left with her parents and was staying at her brother’s house in another part of the city. Fearing that Israeli strikes would target her brother’s neighborhood next, she hoped that her family could leave Tehran, but she said she was worried about being stuck on the roads. “All the roads are congested, and we can’t get through,” she said. “The long lines at gas stations make refueling nearly impossible.” Footage posted on social media and verified by The New York Times on Monday showed long lines of traffic on a highway in northeastern Tehran that leads out of the city. Residents said some gas stations were closing because there is no fuel, and those that were open said they could sell at most 10 liters, or about 2.6 gallons, per customer. Mohsen, 42, an engineer, left Tehran for Semnan Province to the east on Sunday afternoon with his family, including their dog. He said they brought only what they could fit in their car: some clothes and other belongings, food and bottled water. The roads were so clogged that a drive that normally takes an hour stretched to four and a half, he said. The journey was made even longer by security personnel who were inspecting vans and trucks at checkpoints set up at the entrances and exits to cities. Even for those who escape Tehran, conditions were far from stable. Meisam, the poet and writer, said that relatives of his had seen a missile strike while driving on a different highway. It was not clear that things in his hometown would be any better, he said, since many displaced people had flooded in, overwhelming the supermarkets there. “If this continues,” Meisam said, “shortages seem inevitable.” Monika Cvorak and Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting. Black smoke billowed from the Iranian state TV headquarters after an Israeli strike hit the building on Monday. The attack comes as the fighting between Israel and Iran show no signs of slowing down.CreditCredit...Getty Images/Getty Images Iran is often cast as one of the world’s most dangerous villains, a rogue state whose growing nuclear program and shadowy military capabilities threaten Israel, the United States and beyond. But that portrayal has come into question since war erupted between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, soon drawing in the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and then Iran itself. Over the year and a half that followed, Iran has suffered blow after blow. Those humiliations accelerated on Friday with the start of an Israeli campaign that has gone after targets across Iran, crippled its air defenses and killed several of its top military commanders and a number of prominent nuclear scientists. The new round of conflict has killed hundreds of people in Iran and at least 24 in Israel. The fighting has shown, as never before, just how compromised and weak Iranian forces really are — and how few ways they have of hitting back. “Iran has basically demonstrated that it was outgunned and outsmarted again by Israel,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Lacking anything close to the conventional military might of Israel or the United States, its longtime enemies, Iran tried a different approach. For years, its strategy for self-protection rested on the idea that the combination of its armed partners in the region and its own missile capabilities would be enough to deter attacks on Iranian soil. One of those partners, Hezbollah, sat right on Israel’s northern border with an arsenal of rockets. In Iraq, Iranian-backed militant groups were in position to target American military installations there. Iranian short-range missiles could also threaten U.S. bases in the Middle East. And Tehran could launch a barrage of long-range missiles and drones into Israel that would potentially overwhelm Israeli air defenses and shatter the country’s sense of security. Or so the thinking went. Instead, Israel demolished Hezbollah during a war in Lebanon last year, then turned the same playbook on Iran. “Hezbollah has been weakened so dramatically in 2024 that this option no longer holds the power it once held,” said Fabian Hinz, a missiles, drones and Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin. Now, he said, “Iran does not have a lot of options left.” Israeli intelligence managed to penetrate Iran so thoroughly that Israel was able to launch drone attacks on Iranian targets from inside Iran on Friday and to kill some of the most senior figures in the military’s chain of command. That delayed Iran’s retaliatory response, giving Israel time to prepare for Iran’s missiles and to launch more attacks. Beyond its Hezbollah-and-missiles deterrence strategy, Iran had also invested heavily in air defenses to protect itself. But Israel ground down those systems in attacks last year, leaving its warplanes dominant over Iranian airspace this time around. Israel is using that freedom of movement to go after Iranian missile launchers as well as the production facilities that would allow Iran to replenish its missile stocks, Mr. Hinz said. While the U.S. military has said Iran had about 3,000 missiles, it is not clear that all of them have the range to hit Israel. And Iran must shoot off so many at a time to penetrate Israeli air defenses that it will deplete its stockpile more quickly than it can manufacture more, analysts said. Shifting geopolitics has also limited Iran’s options. Once, Iran might have turned to its tried-and-true strategy of using its short-range weaponry on neighbors such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, or on U.S. military facilities in the region. But relations with Gulf Arab states have improved in recent years, making Iran reluctant to target them. And provoking the United States into entering the conflict directly would only increase Iran’s problems, analysts said. Iran could still go after ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which it controls, using drones, submarines or limpet mines. But that would likely have limited effect on the conflict and might risk drawing in the United States. Israel, meanwhile, seems determined to keep striking Iran, even if it means paying a price in civilian lives. “Israel is taking each strike that Iran is able to get through Israeli defenses in stride, and seems to be using it as fuel to either rally Israelis in favor of the conflict or even just to continue the conflict another day or another week,” said Afshon Ostovar, an Iran military expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “It doesn’t seem to be really changing Israel’s calculus.” The risk of pushing Iran into a corner, of course, is that the conflict will lead to an outcome Israel and the United States do not want. Many Iranians who already abhorred their theocratic and authoritarian rulers blame them for the sharp escalation of the conflict. As the civilian death toll rises, however, some may come to soften toward their leaders, or at least harden their attitudes toward Israel, Ms. Geranmayeh said. Patriotic posts, though not pro-regime ones, are already proliferating on Iranian social media. And the more threatened Iran feels, the more likely it is that Iran will conclude it has no option but to pursue a nuclear weapon, analysts said. Experts agree that it will likely retain that capability even after the Israeli attacks. “The irony in all of this is that Iran could still emerge from this conflict with a bomb,” Mr. Ostovar said. “Now, unlike the past, there’s a real explicit need for a nuclear weapon, because Iran has no deterrence left whatsoever.” Last year, Israeli weapons producers were initially barred from attending a prestigious arms industry show in Paris over objections to the war in Gaza. This year, the Israelis were allowed in — but then walled off from other global competitors. Israel’s Ministry of Defense said Monday that the French government built black walls overnight around some weapons systems displayed by Israeli companies, blocking them from view at the Paris Air Show, one of the world’s largest arms exhibitions. It marked the second time in as many years that French authorities have sought to stop Israel from marketing its tools of military might, to reflect objections to its massive bombing campaigns in Gaza. And it comes at a fraught moment between the two countries as President Emmanuel Macron of France considers whether to recognize a Palestinian state, a move that Israel strenuously opposes. The decision was not linked to Israel’s new military offensive in Iran, which aims in part to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, François Bayrou, France’s prime minister, told reporters at the air show. France also has long worried about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Maj. Gen. Amir Baram, the Israeli defense ministry’s director general, accused the French government of trying to stifle competition among weapons producers and said he would take the matter to court. He also called the French action “absolutely, bluntly antisemitic.” French officials did not immediately respond to questions about General Baram’s comments. The walls were put up after Israeli officials objected to what they described as an earlier order by the French government to remove offensive weapons — a category that typically includes missile and rocket launchers, tanks, drones, cannons and a range of ammunition — from Israeli displays. The walls were built “in the middle of the night, after Israeli defense officials and companies had already finished setting up their displays,” the Israeli defense ministry said in a statement on Monday. French officials insisted that Israeli authorities were aware of France’s terms weeks in advance. Israeli authorities had agreed that Israeli booths would not be allowed to display offensive weapons, said one French government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. Four out of nine Israeli exhibitors at the air show complied with the requirements and were open Monday, including a booth run by the Israeli defense ministry itself, the French official noted. But five others failed to comply, the official said, which the French authorities discovered at the last minute. Those booths were the ones blocked from view. French officials said that the Israeli booths that had been blocked would be able to reopen if they complied with the terms. Mr. Bayrou said that the decision stemmed from France’s desire to express “distance and disapproval” with Israel’s offensive in Gaza — not with the recent strikes on Iran, which he said were “not at all of the same nature” because of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. “Israel has the right to defend itself,” Mr. Bayrou said. But, he added, “we have also said that the situation in Gaza is morally unacceptable.” France is one of several European countries that have voiced increasingly sharp condemnation of Israel over its conduct in Gaza. France’s foreign ministry noted on Monday that France exports components to Israel for defensive use, most notably material used for Israel’s protective Iron Dome. But the ministry said that France does not export weapons that could be used in Gaza — a vow that some critics have questioned — and that it could not let Israeli companies promote such weapons on French soil. The air show is expected to draw as many as 300,000 visitors and features defense displays from more than 2,400 companies in 48 countries. The Israeli companies are in the same halls as some of the American weapons exhibitions, and the walls drew condemnation from Republican Govs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, who attended the show. Ms. Sanders said the decision to block access to some of Israel’s weapons displays “seems very short sighted” and called it “important for us to show our support of Israel and of these companies.” Representatives for the show, held at Le Bourget Airport outside Paris, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. After Israel was initially banned last year from attending the weapons show, a court in Paris ruled that the exclusion was discriminatory and ordered the ban to be rescinded. In January, during a short-lived cease-fire in Gaza, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said Mr. Macron had assured him that Israeli weapons companies would be allowed to participate in this year’s arms show. After Israel began new, intensified airstrikes against Iran last week, Mr. Macron said “we don’t want a Middle East with a nuclear-armed Iran” and that Israel had a right to defend itself. But he also said that Gazans should not live under long-term Israeli occupation or mistreated. Israel’s military recently lifted an 80-day blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza as its population approached the brink of starvation. Liz Alderman contributed reporting. A satellite image of the Natanz nuclear enrichment site in central Iran on Sunday after multiple buildings were destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Reuters The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Monday that there was no indication of further damage to Iran’s nuclear sites since Israel attacked a facility at Natanz on Friday as part of its military assault. The watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, added that it had not identified any damage to Iran’s best-protected nuclear site, Fordo, which is deep inside a mountain near the city of Qum. It also said that Israel had not attacked the Bushehr nuclear power plant on Iran’s western coast. Israel on Friday targeted the Natanz site, where Iran produces most of its nuclear fuel, work that has put the country on the cusp of being able to produce a nuclear weapon. The attack destroyed the aboveground part of the fuel enrichment plant, including electricity infrastructure, raising fears of contamination. “There has been no additional damage at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant site since the Friday attack,” Rafael Grossi, head of the I.A.E.A. said in a statement to the agency’s board of governors in Vienna. He added: “There has been no indication of a physical attack on the underground cascade hall,” where uranium was being enriched, though the loss of power “may have damaged the centrifuges there.” He said the power disruption probably sent the centrifuges spinning out of control. The level of radioactivity outside Natanz “has remained unchanged and at normal levels,” Mr. Grossi said. It is possible that some nuclear material at the facility “poses a significant danger” if it is inhaled or ingested, he said. Israel began attacking Iran on Friday, aiming to force the country to give up its nuclear enrichment program, which it said could be used to create a nuclear bomb. Israel has also killed nuclear scientists, as well as top military commanders, as part of its campaign, aiming to undercut the knowledge base needed to build a bomb. Iran says its nuclear industry is solely for civilian use, and it has given no hint that it would end its development program. It has launched deadly waves of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation. Mr. Grossi said that the nuclear agency could respond to any nuclear emergency and was monitoring the situation at the country’s nuclear sites, and said it was in constant contact with the Iranian authorities. Last Thursday, the agency said that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the agency has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years. Iran has taken steps over the years to shield its nuclear industry from the possibility of Israeli attack. The main site for uranium enrichment is at Natanz, which is roughly 140 miles south of Tehran. Other sites include Parchin, a military complex southeast of Tehran where Iran has tested high explosives.