If oil prices are any measure, Iran just flinched. The price of oil tumbled Monday on a bet that Iran's decision to bomb U.S. and Qatari bases signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil.

Well-supplied markets and weakening demand for crude concern American drillers.

Tensions remain high, but a sustained rise in oil prices requires a fundamental reduction in global oil supply. That’s not our base case.